While Wall Street’s tech giants are busy popping champagne over record highs, the ASX 200 found the air above 9,000 a little too thin for comfort today. We watched a sharp, calculated rotation out of the Big Four banks and into the long-suffering tech sector. It’s a classic move. Traders are liquidating winners to chase the bounce in growth.

Jobs Data Keeps RBA on High Alert

The March labour force report arrived earlier today and, frankly, it was a bit of a nothing burger for those hoping for a dovish pivot. Unemployment held steady at 4.3%. We saw 17,900 jobs added, which is close enough to the 20,000 forecast to keep the hawks in control at the RBA. The details were actually firmer than the headline suggests. Full-time roles jumped by over 52,000. I believe this resilience makes a third rate hike in May almost a coin flip.

Unemployment Stable at the Top

Weekly Squeeze Defends the Structural Floor

Looking at the weekly timeframe, the technicals are looking far more constructive than the headlines. We just saw a positive flip on the short-term Supertrend about a couple weeks ago. That’s a very good signal. Buyers didn’t just defend the 8,255 structural zone; they used it as a springboard. We’re currently staring at 9,230 resistance. A weekly close above 9,000 would effectively trap the bears who bet on a geopolitical collapse during the Hormuz panic.

Bullish Flip of Weekly Short-Term Supertrend

A weekly candlestick chart of the Australia 200 Index showing a bullish flip on the short-term Supertrend. Source: TradingView

Daily Momentum Battles Refinery Headwinds

Bulls own the daily tape, but they have to work for it to maintain it. The Index is trading comfortably above the 21-day EMA, which is serving as support. The RSI is above 50, meaning we aren’t even overextended yet. However, we saw some late-session selling after news broke of a fire at Viva Energy’s (VEA) Geelong refinery. The facility processes 120,000 barrels a day. It supplies 10% of Australia’s fuel. This is not good timing. It adds another layer of stagflationary risk to an already fragile recovery.

Holding the Road as The Index Holds Above Trend

A daily candlestick chart of the ASX 200 Index showing the price trading above the 21-day EMA. Source: TradingView

Renko Testing 1-Week Range

From the Renko chart’s perspective, the ASX 200 has spent the past week oscillating within a broad 8,890 to 9,050 range. Price action has recently weakened, with a run of red bricks pushing the index below its Supertrend and back toward the lower boundary of that band. That puts the range lows in sharp focus. If 8,890 gives way, the next logical downside magnet is a re-test of the longer-term 500-SMA.

Renko Testing the Lower End of Range

An 11-brick traditional Renko chart of the ASX 200 showing a sequence of green bricks breaking above the 500-SMA at 8,672.6 with a buy signal at 8,976.8. Source: TradingView

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Neutral

Bias: Positive

Key Support Levels: 8,255, 8,635, 8,890

Key Resistance Levels: 9,230

Medium-Term Path: I expect the ASX 200 to continue its grind toward the 9,230 resistance zone. The tech sector’s 7.4% surge today suggests the catch-up trade is just beginning. As long as the 21-EMA holds and China’s Q1 GDP beat provides a floor for resources, the path of least resistance remains up. Watch the refinery assessments closely. Fuel security is the new wildcard.