AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: Aussie Bears Eye Sub-$0.65

It is a busy morning for the AUD/USD. Employment figures from Australia will draw plenty of interest. A sharp increase in full-time employment and a fall in unemployment would deliver price support.

Economists forecast employment to jump by 48.5k and the unemployment rate to fall from 3.7% to 3.6%. Solid numbers would support another hawkish RBA policy move.

The RBA will also be in focus, with the RBA Bulletin needing consideration.

Earlier this morning, GDP numbers from New Zealand provided the NZD/USD pair with direction. In Q4, the New Zealand economy contracted by 0.8% versus a forecasted -0.2% contraction. The economy expanded by 1.7% in Q3. The numbers sent the Kiwi Dollar deep into the red.

While the stats will provide direction, market risk sentiment will continue to influence, with risk aversion favoring the greenback.

AUD/USD Price Action

The Aussie was up 0.04% to $0.66208. A mixed start to the day saw the AUD/USD fall to an early low of $0.66085 before rising to a high of $0.66234.

Technical Indicators

The AUD/USD needs to move through the $0.6640 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6690. A return to $0.6650 would signal a bullish session. However, the Aussie Dollar would need a shift in market risk sentiment to support a breakout day.

In case of a breakout session, the Aussie would likely test resistance at $0.67 but fall short of the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6762. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6883.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6568 in play. However, barring another risk-off-fueled sell-off, the AUD/USD pair should avoid sub-$0.6550 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6518.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6396.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bearish signal. The AUD/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.66600. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA (0.66600) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.6690) to give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($0.67104) and R2 ($0.6762). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.66600) would leave the Major Support Levels in play. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

NZD/USD Price Action

This morning, the Kiwi was down 0.36% to $0.61652. A bearish start to the day saw the NZD/USD fall from an early high of $0.61893 to a low of $0.61398. The NZD/USD briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6152.

Technical Indicators

The NZD/USD needs to move through the $0.6208 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6244. A return to $0.62 would signal a recovery session. However, market risk sentiment will remain the key driver.

In the case of a breakout session, the Kiwi would likely test resistance at the Wednesday high of $0.62645 but fall short of the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6300. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6393.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6152 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the NZD/USD pair would likely avoid sub-$0.61. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6116 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6024.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bearish signal. The NZD/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.61851. The 50-day slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

An NZD/USD move through the 50-day EMA ($0.61851) would support a breakout from the 100-day EMA ($0.62025) to target the 200-day EMA ($0.62429) and R1 ($0.6244). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.61851) would leave S1 ($0.6152) in play. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.