AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie Bulls Dig In as April PMIs Battle Safe-Haven Dollar Demand

Risk is having a hard time finding its feet today. I’ve been watching the DXY climb back toward 98.78 as the peace premium from the US-Iran ceasefire extension evaporates faster than a puddle in the Outback. While the diplomatic headlines look okay on paper, the physical reality in the Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed. Oil is back in triple digits. Brent at over $100. That’s a massive headwind for global growth. AUD/USD, our favorite proxy for global sentiment, is caught in a tug-of-war between a resilient domestic data set and a broad safe-haven bid for the greenback. We’re seeing a classic rotation into safety.

Australia’s PMI Rebound vs. The Energy Shock

The headline numbers out of Australia this morning were a welcome surprise. The preliminary composite PMI bounced back to 51, technically returning to the expansion zone after an underwhelming March. But don’t break out the champagne just yet. I think this is a bit of a mirage. If you look under the hood, the manufacturing sector is still struggling with declining new orders and shrinking inventories. Firms are flagging massive pressure from shipping and fuel costs. The RBA is stuck. With the cash rate at 4.10% and energy prices fueling a secondary wave of inflation, they simply can’t afford to blink.

Australia’s Composite PMI Returns to Expansion Territory

Bar chart showing Australia’s April PMI bounce to 50.1. Source: TradingView

Renko Bricks Hold the Line at 0.7133

The technical structure hasn’t broken. Not yet. Looking at the 0.001-brick Renko, we’re seeing some chop after the pair hit a recent peak of 0.7221. Price is currently compressing just above the green trend support band. I noticed the Supertrend level at 0.71337 is acting as a rigid line of defense for the bulls. Momentum is soft, the RSI is sitting below 50. But it’s reset, not washed out. As long as we hold above that 0.7133 floor and stay well clear of the 500-SMA, the path of least resistance remains higher. This is a bull trend catching its breath.

AUD/USD 0.001-brick Renko Showing Consolidation

Renko chart of AUD/USD highlighting the 0.7133 support zone. Source: TradingView

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Bullish

Bias: Positive

Key Support Levels: 0.6833,0.69655

Key Resistance Levels: 0.71875, 0.72, 0.73

Medium-Term Path: I expect AUD/USD to continue digesting its recent gains within a 0.7060 to 0.7210 range. The market has finally stopped trading on ceasefire hopes and is starting to price in a permanent energy shock. We’re watching for a clean break above 0.71875 to target a re-test of the 0.7221 highs. If 0.7133 fails on a daily close, expect a deeper flush toward the 500 SMA. Keep your eyes on the US jobless claims later today. The dollar’s dominance is the only thing standing in the way of an Aussie sprint.