AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie Resilience Tested by Hormuz Whiplash as Bulls Defend the 0.7200 Ceiling

If you needed a reminder that headlines can reverse a trade in hours, this weekend delivered it. Friday was a textbook head-fake. Crude oil sold off hard, down 10%, on rumours of a permanent Hormuz reopening, and AUD/USD rode that wave all the way up to a four-year high near 0.7200. It felt convincing at that moment.

Then the weekend happened. The US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship, Tehran re-closed the Strait, and just like that, the war premium was back. Crude is trading above $90 again.

Additionally, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is creeping back toward 98.3 on safe-haven demand, which you’d normally expect to drag the Aussie lower. But it’s holding up better than it has any right to, propped up by two things: its role as a commodity-linked currency, and China’s surprisingly solid 5.0% Q1 GDP print. Right now it really is a two-speed market — you have the geopolitical fear trade pulling one way and the China recovery story pulling the other.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Weekly Structure Defies the Noise

Step back from the daily drama and the picture is actually quite orderly. On the weekly chart, AUD/USD has absorbed a serious stress test and come out the other side intact. Price is holding comfortably above the long-term Supertrend floor at 0.6726, and the broader structure of higher highs and higher lows is still very much in place. We’ve broken cleanly out of the range that capped the pair through most of 2024, and the bulls are defending their territory. This isn’t a trend that’s breaking down. It’s a trend that ran hard and is now catching its breath.

Aussie Bulls Defend the Long-Term Supertrend Floor as Macro Recovery Continues

Weekly AUD/USD — Supertrend Long holding at 0.6726 | Source: TradingView

Decelerating Momentum on the Daily Timeframe

Buyers took the wheel early in April, but they’re meeting some resistance now. The daily chart printed a shooting-star reversal setup after Friday’s fail at 0.7225, signalling that momentum has cooled just beneath major supply. However, the trend hasn’t rolled over. The RSI remains above 60, which typically fits a bullish trend that’s simply taking a breather.

Momentum Shifts into a Consolidation Phase

Daily AUD/USD — 21-EMA dynamic support, RSI above 60 | Source: TradingView

Renko Signals Mean Reversion After the Mid-Month Rally

Switching to a 0.001-brick Renko, upside momentum has faded. The local ceiling is Supertrend resistance around 0.7170, and the negative Z-score SMA at this micro scale tells you the pair got overstretched during the mid-month rally and has now worked that off. We’re still above the 500-SMA, which keeps the intraday bias leaning positive — but make no mistake, it’s choppy going right now, and trading it tight is the right approach.

Green Bricks Dominate but Face Supertrend Resistance

AUD/USD Renko (0.001-brick) — above 500-SMA, capped at 0.7170 | Source: TradingView

The Verdict: Bullish Bias Intact Above the 21-EMA

Current Trend Direction: Bullish

Bias: Positive

Key Support Levels: 0.6725, 0.6833, 0.6966

Key Resistance Levels: 0.7200, 0.7300

Medium-Term Path: Expect a choppy consolidation phase while the market digests the latest Hormuz whiplash. As long as the 21-EMA holds on the daily, the path of least resistance still points back toward a retest of the 0.7225 high. The real catalyst to watch is the April 29th CPI print — that’s what will likely seal the RBA’s May decision. Until the 500-SMA breaks on the Renko, buying dips remains the preferred approach.