AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Bounces After Selling Off

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

You can see that we have dropped a bit during the trading session on Friday to break down below the 50 day EMA in the Australian dollar, as we continue to look for some type of pullback and buying opportunity that could be setting up right now, but we will just have to wait and see. Ultimately, I think this is a pair that will continue to be very noisy in general.

We are in the midst of a major consolidation range so I think at this stage in the game we probably have to look at this through the prism of whether or not we can pick up some momentum. Breaking above the 0.6650 level is the gateway to much higher pricing. At that point it’s likely 0.69 eventually gets targeted. If we continue to break down, then the 0.65 level would be support followed by the 0.6450 level.

I do think that you will have to pay attention to risk on, risk off type of behavior and therefore pay close attention to other indices around the world, commodities, as the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to commodities, and of course pay attention to Asia. Asia, of course, is a major influence on Australia as China is the biggest customer to Australia and all of its commodities. So, with that being said, I think you’ve got a situation where you are doing everything you can to sort out where we’re going longer term, but right now I think it’s just more chop and as we head into the weekend I don’t see a lot changing. This is a market that will require a lot of nimble trading at best.

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