AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Threaten Support

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 07.03.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen a bit during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to look at the 0.67 level underneath as a potential support level. It has offered support over the last couple of days, so it does make a certain amount of sense that traders continue to come back into this picture. Furthermore, there is a little bit of support underneath there reaching down to the 0.66 level, and therefore I think it’s going to be difficult for this pair to simply fall through the floor. However, it’s probably worth noting that the market has been very choppy in general, therefore I think you probably continue to see a lot of back and forth trading more than anything else.

The 50-Day EMA has just broken back below the 200-Day EMA, forming the so-called “death cross”, then longer-term sellers may come in and hold short positions. That being said, the 0.68 level above could be resistance, right along with those moving averages. With that being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, and therefore I would not hang on to a position for far too long, due to the fact that there are so many different things out there moving the market around.

Keep in mind that the Aussie of course is going to be very sensitive to the idea of global growth, or perhaps even the lack of it, and therefore you need to pay close attention to inflation numbers, and of course GDP numbers around the world. The Australian economy is highly levered to the Chinese economy as well, which although just reopening from the pandemic lockdowns, does not necessarily look blazing hot either, although in all fairness the Chinese economy is probably one of the better performers at the moment.

That being said, if the rest of the world is going to slow down, then the Chinese economy will of course suffer as a result. If we do break down below the support region underneath, it could open up a move down to 0.65 level, which is an area where we had seen a lot of noise previously. Breaking above the moving averages could open up a move to the 0.70 level, but that would take a significant amount of momentum.

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