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James Hyerczyk

The Australian Dollar is trading higher early Tuesday following the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy meeting on August 6. RBA Policymakers reiterated their desire to weigh the effect of recent cash rate cuts after considering the impact of unconventional monetary policy on other advanced economies.

At 06:49 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6783, up 0.0019 or +0.28%.

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The minutes also revealed that members are hoping to let June and July’s 0.25 percentage point cuts play out before intervening further. The price action essentially shows that the minutes contained no real surprises. Furthermore, traders have already taken a September rate cut off the table. Those chances dropped last week when President Trump announced a delay in additional tariffs on China.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The main trend will change to up on a trade through .7082. This is highly unlikely, but the minor trend can change to up and there is room to the upside for a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement. A trade through .6677 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .6821 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is .6677 to .6821. Its 50% level or pivot at .6749 is support. It’s been controlling the direction of the AUD/USD for nine sessions.

The main range is .7082 to .6677. If the minor trend changes to up then its retracement zone at .6880 to .6927 will become the primary upside target.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6783, the direction of the AUD/USD on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6767.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6767 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the minor top at .6821. Taking out this level will change the minor trend to up and could drive the Forex pair into a resistance cluster at .6857 to .6862. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this area, overcoming it, however, could lead to a test of the main 50% level at .6880.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6767 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out today’s intraday low at .6755 will be a sign of weakness. This should lead to a test of the pivot at .6749. If the pivot fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the uptrending Gann angle at .6722. This is the last potential support angle before the .6677 main bottom.

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