AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Aussie Edging Higher Ahead of RBA Rate Statement

The Australian Dollar is trading higher shortly before the release of the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate statement and interest rate decision at 03:30 GMT. Central bank policymakers are widely expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.10%.

At 02:03 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7651, up 0.0028 or +0.37%.

Investors will also be seeking clues about the RBA’s A$100 billion ($76 billion) quantitative easing program, which expires in April. Most analysts assume the bank will extend the program, if only to lessen upward pressure on the Aussie, but will be looking for signs that purchases will be tapered slightly.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7592 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a trade through .7764.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .7704 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is .7764 to .7592. Its 50% level at .7678 is the next upside target. Overtaking this level could trigger a surge into the minor top at .7704.

The short-term range is .7339 to .7820. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at .7579 to .7523 is the next downside target zone. Buyers could come in on the first test of this zone, but if it fails, we could see an acceleration to the downside.

The main range is .6991 to .7820. Its retracement zone at .7405 to .7308 is a key value zone. It’s also controlling the longer-term direction of the AUD/USD.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD early Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .7678.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7678 will indicate the presence of sellers. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of this level.

If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into .7579 to .7523.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7678 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a test of the minor top at .7704. Taking out this level will change the minor trend to up. This will also change momentum to the upside with .7764 the next potential upside target. Overtaking this level will change the main trend to up.

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