AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Main Trend Turned Up, but Trader Reaction to .7691 Sets the Tone

The AUD/USD is trading slightly lower on Wednesday after giving up an earlier gain. The previous session’s rally and today’s early follow-through move are serving as signs of an accelerating global economy. Rising commodity prices and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision on Tuesday to leave policy unchanged are also providing some support.

At 05:07 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7658, down 0.0060 or -0.08%.

Helping to boost demand for the commodity-linked currency is a string of strong March manufacturing surveys from across the globe that are supporting the notion of a strengthening global economy. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast on Tuesday for global growth this year to 6%, a rate unseen since the 1970s, while also lifting its outlook for Australia.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The main trend turned up earlier today when buyers took out the previous main top at .7664. The main trend will change to down on a move through the nearest swing bottom at .7532.

The short-term range is .7849 to .7532. Its retracement zone at .7691 to .7728 is the next upside target.

The main range is .8007 to .7532. Its retracement zone at .7770 to 7826 is the primary upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at .7691.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7691 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a short-term break into a minor pivot at .7605. Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on a test of this level. If it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into .7532 for a retest of the main bottom.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7691 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger the start of a labored rally with potential upside targets coming in at .7728 and .7770.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.