AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – March 22, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is under pressure on Friday as investors continue to react negatively to yesterday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. Mixed domestic data is having little effect on the price action. The Aussie plunged on Thursday after a pair of better than expected U.S. reports on jobless claims and manufacturing lifted the U.S. Dollar.

At 10:04 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7096, down 0.0016 or -0.26%.

The reports showed that the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, and another report showed a measure of factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region rebounding sharply this month after a heavy drop in February.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, yesterday’s closing price reversal top and subsequent confirmation earlier today shifted momentum to the downside. The chart pattern doesn’t mean the trend is changing to down, but it could lead to a 2 to 3 day correction.

A trade through .7168 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through .7041.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through .7057 will change the minor trend to down. This will confirm the shift in momentum.

The major retracement zone is .7079 to .7153. Inside this range is the main retracement zone at .7105 to .7129.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a downtrending Gann angle at .7102 and the 50% level at .7105.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7105 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main Fibonacci level at .7129.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7102 will signal the presence of sellers. This could generate the downside momentum need to drive the AUD/USD into the major 50% level at .7079.

Look out to the downside if .7079 fails as support. This could drive the market into the minor bottom at .7057, followed by the uptrending Gann angle at .7053.