AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – September 3, 2019 Forecast

The Australian Dollar is trading lower shortly before the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision and rate statement. The RBA is expected to leave rates unchanged, but is likely to issue a dovish statement, while reiterating it is in the “wait and see” mode for future rate cuts. Going into today’s meeting, traders have priced in a 12% chance of a rate cut. However, another cut in October is widely expected.

At 04:28 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6693, down 0.0024 or -0.36%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. It was reaffirmed earlier today when sellers took out the low at .6690. It will resume if sellers take out .6677. The main trend will change to up on a move through .7082. This is highly unlikely, however, we could see a change in the minor trend over the near-term.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .6821 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside. A trade through .6677 will reaffirm the minor trend.

The minor range is .6677 to .6821. Its 50% level or pivot at .6749 is resistance. It’s also controlling the short-term direction of the AUD/USD.

The main range is .7082 to .6677. Its retracement zone at .6880 to .6927 is resistance.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6693, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Monday’s close at .6717.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6717 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the intraday low at .6687 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could drive the AUD/USD into the August 7 minor bottom at .6677. Look for a potential acceleration to the downside if .6677 fails.

The daily chart is wide open to the downside with the March 3, 2009 main bottom at .6285 the next major target.

Bullish Scenario

Overcoming .6717 and sustaining the move will signal the presence of buyers. This will also put the AUD/USD in a position to form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

If a move over .6717 is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the pivot at .6749, followed by a downtrending Gann angle at .6762. Taking out this angle could trigger an acceleration to the upside.