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James Hyerczyk

The Australian Dollar finished lower on Wednesday after erasing all of the previous session’s gains. On Tuesday, the currency attempted a short-term breakout to the upside after the Trump Administration announced it was delaying tariffs on some products from China. On Wednesday, the Aussie weakened on a plunge in demand for higher risk assets after a key U.S. Treasury yield indicator signaled a future recession.

On Thursday, the AUD/USD settled at .6748, down 0.0049 or -0.71%.

Traders are now waiting to hear from RBA Assistant Governor Debelle at 23:00 GMT, and the Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate reports at 01:30 GMT.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending slightly higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom at .6677 on August 7.

The main trend changes to up on a trade through .7082. A move through .6677 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .6818 will change the minor trend to up. This will indicate a stronger shift in momentum to the upside. A trade through .6821 will reaffirm the minor trend.

The minor range is .6677 to .6821. Its 50% level or pivot at .6749 has been providing support for the AUD/USD for several days.

The short-term range is .7082 to .6677. If the minor trend changes to up then its retracement zone at .6880 to .6927 will become the primary upside target.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Wednesday’s price action and the close at .6748, the direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at .6749.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6749 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a potential rally into .6818 to .6821. Taking out .6821 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the short-term 50% level at .6880 the next likely upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6749 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out the minor bottom at .6742 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target the minor bottom at .6677. The daily chart is wide open to the downside under this level.

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