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James Hyerczyk

The Australian Dollar is trading flat late in the session on Thursday after giving back earlier gains. The Aussie was supported early in the session after the release of a report showing better than expected labor market data.

Australia’s unemployment rate came in at 6.6% in December, according to seasonally adjusted estimates released by the country’s Bureau of Statistics. That compared against expectations for a 6.7% reading in a Reuters poll, and followed November’s 6.8% unemployment rate.

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At 18:15 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7751, up 0.0005 or +0.06%.

Upbeat U.S. economic data showed an economy getting some traction, with slightly better-than-expected initial jobless claims, upbeat housing starts data, and a higher factory index for the mid-Atlantic region.


Daily Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7805 will change the main trend to up. A move through .7659 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor range is .7820 to .7659. Its 50% level at .7739 is providing support on Thursday.

The short-term range is .7339 to .7820. If the downtrend resumes then its 50% level at .7579 will become the primary downside target.


Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the AUD/USD into the close on Thursday will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .7739.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7739 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out .7782 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could create the momentum needed to take out a pair of main tops at .7805 and .7820.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7739 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main bottom at .7659.

Taking out .7659 will confirm that .7782 is a new secondary lower top. This would signal the AUD/USD is preparing to rollover to the downside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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