AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Upside Momentum Could Surge on Sustained Move Over .7770

The Australian Dollar is trading flat on Friday after clawing back from earlier lows. Pressuring the Aussie are weaker iron ore and mining stocks which took a hit after Beijing vowed to stabilize commodities prices. Underpinning the Aussie Dollar is a weaker U.S. Dollar, which is feeling pressure from stabilizing U.S. Treasury yields.

At 11:16 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7780, up 0.0007 or +0.09%.

Prices fell sharply early in the session even as a survey of Australian retailers showed stronger-than-expected sales in April, led by a jump in food retailing, in yet another sign the country’s economy is booming.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of a closing price reversal top on May 10.

A trade through .7688 will change the main trend to down. A move through .7891 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is also up. A move through the minor top at .7814 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

The short-term range is .7532 to .7891. Its retracement zone at .7711 to .7669 is support. This area recently stopped the selling at .7688.

The main range is .8007 to .7532. Its retracement zone at .7769 to .7826 is resistance. This zone is also controlling the near-term direction of the AUD/USD.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at .7769.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7770 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the minor top at .7814, followed by the main Fibonacci level at .7826.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7769 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the support cluster at .7711. This is followed by the main bottom at .7688.