AUD/USD Momentum Buyers Targeting .7249 – .7262

The Australian Dollar is heading for a third day of gains on Thursday as speculators remained optimistic on Ukraine and local data showed the labor market had weathered a wave of coronavirus cases.

At 10:52 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7209, up 0.0013 or +0.18%. On Wednesday, the Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF (FXA) settled at $71.39, up $0.46 or +0.65%.

Australian data showed the economy still managed to create a net 12,900 jobs in January even as an Omicron COVID-19 wave slugged activity, keeping unemployment at a 13-year low of 4.2%.

That resilience should encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which wants a tight labor market to drive up wages before it starts to raise interest rates.

A potential Russia-Ukraine conflict is the wildcard. A military conflict is likely to weigh on risk sentiment, which would drive down the higher-risk Aussie Dollar. Otherwise, inflation pressure and central bank urgency in tightening policy will continue to push rates higher and the Australian Dollar.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7249 will reaffirm the uptrend. A move through .7086 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is .7314 to .6967. The AUD/USD is trading on the bullish side of its retracement zone at .7181 to .7140, making it support.

The minor range is .6967 to .7249. Its retracement zone at .7108 to .7075 is additional support. This area stopped the selling at .7086 on Monday.

The main range is .7556 to .6967. Its retracement zone at .7262 to .7331 is the next upside target and potential resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD into the close on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7181.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7181 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the main top at .7249, followed closely by the main 50% level at .7262.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7181 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break with the nearest targets .7140 and .7108.

A trade through .7086 will change the main trend to down with .7075 the next target. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with .6967 the next major target.