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Christopher Lewis
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AUD/USD

The Australian dollar has drifted a little bit lower during the trading session on Monday, looking for buyers underneath. The 0.75 level underneath is also a significant area that is not only a large, round, psychologically significant barrier, but it is also an area that we have already seen buyers jump back into. I think we may return to that level before rallying somewhat significantly. Keep in mind that this pair is based upon the commodity trade, and commodities are a little overdone in the short term. Furthermore, the US dollar is oversold at the moment as well. This does not mean that the trend will change, rather that a pullback is more likely than not.

AUD/USD Video 19.01.21

The Aussie of course needs more “risk on” type of behavior to come back into favor, so we need to see what is going to go on with the stimulus in the United States. After all, the stimulus trade has been driving the train for commodities and US dollar selling for a while, but it is starting it a little bit of a snag right now as perhaps the stimulus package will be as big as initially thought. Regardless, this is a pair that is in an uptrend for a reason, and unless we get some type of major shift in attitude and economic outlook, I just do not see how you could be a seller of the Australian dollar, despite the fact that it has ran so far. I think at this juncture we are looking at the possibility of a little bit of momentum building which means more of a sideways market in the short term.

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