The Australian dollar has rallied a bit on Tuesday, as we continue to see bullish momentum for the “reflation trade” now that stimulus has been signed in US.
The Australian dollar has rallied slightly during the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to see traders bank on the stimulus package in the United States depreciating the US dollar, and of course the idea that commodities will continue to rally as a result. That being said, I do believe that although we are bullish in this market, we do not necessarily have an explosive move coming. We are knocking on the door breaking out, but obviously we are in more of a grind as we are between the Christmas and the New Year’s Day holidays, so most traders are probably thinking more about that than anything else.
All that being said, the trend is up, and that is the only thing you need to pay attention to over the longer term. The 0.75 level underneath could offer a significant amount of support extending down to the 0.74 level, as we had seen previously. The 50 day EMA is sitting just below the 0.74 handle as well, so that should offer a certain amount of support in and of itself. I do like the idea of taking advantage of the overall trend and therefore if we pull back, I think there will be plenty of people looking to get involved in this obvious trend.
Longer-term, the market could go looking towards the 0.7750 level, possibly even the 0.80 level after that. Ultimately, I have no interest in selling this pair, at least not until we crash through the black 200 day EMA on the chart. Currently, that sits at roughly 0.71, far below where we are right now.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.