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Christopher Lewis
AUD/USD daily chart, October 21, 2019

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, as we start to approach the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, an area that has seen resistance previously, and as a result it’s likely to see more again. Heading into the weekend, there are a lot of moving pieces out there that could come into play, and therefore it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out at the beginning of next week. Ultimately, if the 0.69 level gets broken then it’s very likely that the next thing that people will pay attention to will be the 200 day EMA. It currently sits at the 0.6950 level, so paying attention to that level will be crucial.

AUD/USD Video 21.10.19

I’m looking for a fairly exhaustive candle to start selling, but the question now is whether or not it is at the 0.69 level or the 200 day EMA. After all, it’s a major couple of levels that the markets will be paying attention to as the trend has been most certainly negative for some time, and therefore that has to be taken into account. Beyond that, the US/China trade situation continues to be a complete mess, so that will work against the value of the Aussie over the longer-term as well. All things being equal, I am looking for a selling opportunity but don’t necessarily see it right now. I will use daily closes to make my next decision, so patients will be the order of the day. Going into the weekend, almost anything can happen so the Aussie is at one of my currencies I like to hold.

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