AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Shows Some Resiliency Into The Weekend

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, breaking above the 50 day EMA early during the day as President Trump suggested that there is a path going forward to open up the US economy. Remember, the Australian dollar is highly levered to the Chinese economy, which desperately needs exports to pick up in order to get back to normalcy. The US economy of course is a major consumer of world goods, so it’s all interconnected.

To the upside, I see a lot of resistance near the 0.6450 level that extends to the 0.65 handle. Any side of exhaustion in that area will more than likely be sold into, just as a breakdown below the bottom of the hammer that formed for the Thursday session will probably attract more selling. The US dollar is still highly sought after, even though the Federal Reserve is in the midst of doing quantitative easing. This is mainly because everybody else is doing the same thing.

AUD/USD Video 20.04.20

I believe that the negative candle from the Wednesday session was the first serious signal that we were going to go lower, so a bit of a pullback is my main thesis but I also recognize that if we can clear the 0.65 handle it’s likely that the market will continue to go towards the 0.66 level, possibly even higher than that. All things being equal though, I’m looking for signs of exhaustion to sell into if for no other reason the Australian dollar has rallied far too quickly into short of a timeframe. Position sizing of course is going to be paramount.