AUD/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Has Tough Week

The Australian dollar initially tried to reach towards the 0.67 handle. At this point, the market has seen plenty of support and resistance in that area, so the fact that the market rolled over from there isn’t a huge surprise. As the market reach down towards the 0.65 level, it then sliced through there and broke down towards the lows where the financial crisis sent the Australian dollar. All things being equal, the market looks as if it is still going to be a “fading the rallies” type of situation. Because of this, I believe that the market cannot be trusted on these rallies, at least not until we take out the weekly candlestick which would mean a move back above the 0.67 handle, which of course would be a very strong move.

AUD/USD Video 16.03.20

Keep in mind that the Australian economy is highly sensitive to demand from China, and if the rest of the world is slowing down China isn’t going to be producing much, or at the very least it isn’t going to be exporting much. The markets are pricing in a rather significant recession, and that does not help the Aussie. Having said that though, the Australian dollar will be one of the first currencies to recover when things start to look a bit better. I believe at this point it’s very likely to be a scenario where we should have a nice “buy-and-hold” opportunity from a longer-term standpoint, but at this point we aren’t quite there yet.