AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Hovers Near Major Moving Averages

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 21.02.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, breaking above the 50-Day EMA, near the 0.69 level. 0.69 level has been important more than once, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see noise there. As we have broken above that moving average, we also saw a bit of downward pressure, so now it looks as if the market is trying to figure out what it wants to do for a longer-term move.

Keep in mind that the Australian dollar will be highly levered to commodities, and of course the idea of global growth. With China reopening, there is a bit of hope, but it also is probably worth noting that the global economy itself looks a bit shaky to say the least. The market had recently rallied all the way to the 50% Fibonacci level, only to start selling off quite drastically. Those impulsive candlesticks above should continue to weigh heavy upon the market, especially if we see commodities lose some steam.

It is probably worth noting that the hammer from the Friday trading session is a candlestick that you should be paying close attention to, because if we were to break down below there, it would be a serious breach of support. Not only would we be breaking down below the hammer, and also the 200-Day EMA, an indicator that will attract a lot of attention by systematic traders. To the upside, I think that the 0.70 level will continue to be a bit of the ceiling, as it is psychologically important, and we have seen a lot of action in that area.

It is worth noting that inflation is still an issue in both Australia and the United States, so the interest rate situation between the 2 currencies may not be as clear as others, but as a general rule of the dollar tends to move in one direction against all currencies. In other words, you can pay attention to multiple currency pairs, and notice the overall direction of the dollar in order to trade this market.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.