The AUD/USD is trading higher during the European trading session, while posting a two-sided trade early in the day. There were no major economic releases in Australia and none are expected in the U.S. However, the focus will be on President-elect Donald Trump’s first press conference since his election in November. It is tentatively scheduled for 1600 GMT.
Traders are sure about the topics that will be discussed at the news conference. It’s an open forum so journalists can ask questions on a variety of topics. It the questions center on the U.S. economy then he is likely to be asked about policy plans for fiscal spending, cutting taxes and loosening banking regulations.
However, if the journalists center on the hot topics then look for questions on the Russian hacking scandal, the repealing of Obamacare and Trump’s conflict of interest.
Traders should brace for volatility because Trump is a wildcard. Basically, we’ll be watching Treasury yields and stocks for a reaction. If Treasury yields weaken and stocks fall then we should see a drop in the U.S. Dollar which should be supportive for the Australian Dollar.
Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is clearly trending higher.
The main range is .7524 to .7159. Its retracement zone is .7341 to .7385. Overtaking this zone to the upside will indicate that momentum is increasing. Taking out .7341 with conviction will be a sign of weakness.
Forecast
Based on the current price at .7381 and the early price action, I’m looking for a surge to the upside if buyers can take out .7385 and a break to the downside if the uptrending angle at .7379 fails as support.
A sustained move over .7385 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target angle .7434. This is another trigger point for a strong breakout. The next target angle is .7479.
A sustained move under .7379 will indicate the presence of sellers. The daily chart is open to .7344 to .7341.
The trigger point for an acceleration to the downside is .7341. Taking out this price with conviction could send the AUD/USD into the next target angle at .7269.
