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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis, June 04, 2015 – Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD gained 21 points to trade at 0.7793 after another better than expected data hit the wires. The AUD gained
Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD gained 21 points to trade at 0.7793 after another better than expected data hit the wires. The AUD gained yesterday after a better than forecast current account and then today’s stronger GDP numbers. Australia’s economic growth has surprised on the upside, with 2.3 per cent annual growth coming in ahead of most economist forecasts.
The typical analyst surveyed by Bloomberg expected the economy to grow 2.1 per cent over the year to March. However, the expectations that today’s Bureau of Statistics number beat were very low, and the 2.3 per cent growth was down on the 2.5 per cent reported for the year to December.
It is also well down on the 3-3.25 per cent growth rate that is considered average for Australia over the past few decades and is needed to start pushing unemployment lower.
The March quarter growth number was a bright spot though – at 0.9 per cent, the economy would be back on track for 3.6 per cent annual growth if that pace of expansion could be maintained.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
AUD |
GDP (QoQ) (Q1) |
0.9% |
0.7% |
0.5% |
|
||
|
AUD |
GDP (YoY) (Q1) |
2.3% |
2.1% |
2.5% |
|
||
|
CNY |
HSBC Services PMI (May) |
53.5 |
53.3 |
52.9 |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Thursday, June 04, 2015
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
JPY |
BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
|
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) |
|
0.4% |
0.3% |
|
||
|
AUD |
Trade Balance (Apr) |
|
-2.250B |
-1.322B |
|
||
|
GBP |
BoE QE Total (Jun) |
|
375B |
375B |
|
||
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision (Jun) |
|
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
||
|
RUB |
CPI (MoM) |
|
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
||
|
RUB |
CPI (YoY) |
|
15.9% |
16.4% |
|
||
|
RUB |
Central Bank reserves (USD) |
|
|
360.5B |
|
||
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
279K |
282K |
|
||
|
USD |
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) |
|
-2.9% |
-1.9% |
|
||
|
USD |
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1) |
|
5.9% |
5.0% |
|
||
|
CAD |
Ivey PMI (May) |
|
55.5 |
58.2 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 04 11:10 France Eur 8-9bn 1.75% May 2023
Jun 04 11:30 UK Gbp 750mn 4.25% 2055 mini-Gilt tender
Jun 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 10 Jun
Jun 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 June
Jun 09 11:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale
Jun 09 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt
Jun 10 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction
Jun 10 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz
Jun 10 16:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 17 June
Jun 11 11:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
Jun 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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