AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 19, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD fell below 0.71 again to trade at 0.7097 as analysts are wondering if the currency will break below the 0.70 level against the ongoing strength of the US dollar.  Any interest rate rise in the US next month will likely spark some jitters on financial markets even though it has been expected for some time, the RBA says.

“For anyone to not be prepared for it really has no excuse,” Reserve Bank assistant governor for financial markets Guy Debelle said.

Speculators are pricing in a more than 60 per cent chance that the US Federal Reserve will raise the rate at its December 15-16 meeting, which would be the first rise in almost a decade. However, Debelle says it’s inevitable that some financial market players will be betting against it, or be caught off guard.

“There’s a decently large chunk of people in financial markets that don’t know what happens when the Fed raises its interest rate,” he told a reporter.

One of the main reasons that the Australian dollar has fallen US20 cents since September 2014 is expectations the Fed will be hiking sometime this year. The other is falling commodity prices. When the Fed held off raising its interest rate at its September meeting, it sparked a 1.75 per cent fall on the US stock market, and pushed the Aussie dollar to a four-month high just below US73 cents.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus