AUDUSD Weekly Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Consolidate

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 17.04.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied during the course of the week, but it has not exactly been a one-way trip. Ultimately, the market looks as if it is trying to figure out what to do with the trading range, with a 0.68 level above offer any significant resistance barrier, while the 0.66 level underneath offers a significant floor. The Aussie dollar of course is going to be very noisy as there are a lot of questions as to what’s going on with global growth, as economic indicators are all over the place. The Australian dollar is also suffering at the hands of the Reserve Bank of Australia recently sitting on its hands when it came to raising interest rates. In other words, they have plaintiff, and other central banks around the world continue to tighten.

All that being said, it’s very likely that we would see a lot of volatility, and I think it is probably only a matter of time before the markets will have to deal with the idea of figuring out whether or not we are going to continue to grow. Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly levered to the Chinese economy, so you will have to pay close attention to what’s going on in the mainland as well. If we do break above the 0.68 level, then it opens up the possibility of challenging the 50-Week EMA, which of course is an indicator that a lot of people pay attention to. It is sloping lower, suggesting that we are in fact getting ready to head into a further downtrend.

Ultimately, I think this is a situation where you continue to see a lot of negativity, and more of a “fade the rally” approach. Unfortunately, it’s probably based more on short-term charts than anything else, so I think at this point in time we need to be very cautious, and recognize that the market is more likely than not going to continue to be very difficult to trade, and therefore position sizing will be the most important thing you can do to keep your trading profitable.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.