Big Week For Commodities As U.S Inflation And Fed Take Centre Stage?

Phil Carr

A chorus of the world’s most powerful Wall Street banks have been quoted saying that a new era of macroeconomics has begun and it will dominate everything over the next decade!

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This comes as no surprise, given today’s highly macro-driven backdrop is fuelling one of the greatest wealth creation opportunities the world has ever seen.

According to GSC Commodity Intelligence – this phenomenon results from an ever-growing number of market-moving factors including supply disruptions, escalating geopolitical tensions, the climate change crisis and energy transition.

Macroeconomic Spotlight: U.S. Inflation Outlook and Federal Reserve Signals

And guess what? This week is about one thing and one thing only: It’s all about the macroeconomics with trader’s attention firmly focused on a string of critical economic readings including U.S Consumer Price and Producer Price Inflation figures – all topped off with a dozen or more speeches from Federal Reserve officials, scheduled throughout the week.

Taking front and centre stage will undoubtedly be the outcome of two hotly anticipated U.S inflation reports.

Based on consensus, market expectations are that U.S inflation likely continued to slow at the start of the year, helping to feed expectations that the Federal Reserve will find interest-rate cuts more palatable in the coming months.

The Core Consumer Price Index, a measure that excludes food and fuel for a better picture of underlying inflation, is seen increasing 3.7% in January from a year earlier.

That would mark the smallest year-over-year advance since April 2021 and underscore the inroads Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have made in beating inflation.

Traders Eagerly Await Insights From Fed Speakers

Traders will also be monitoring a host of Fed speakers, to gauge the timing of rate cuts this year.

Market participants have already started pricing in that the Fed will carry four or five – quarter-point rate cuts in 2024, only slightly more than the three pencilled in by FOMC policymakers. That’s a sharp shift from the end of last year, when traders were wagering on seven such moves, anticipating the Fed would cut rates by a full percentage point more than it was telegraphing at the time.

Regardless of the outcome, every rate cut, big or small – has enormous potential to move the markets significantly – bringing with it massive opportunities to capitalize on!

As always, traders will be scrutinizing every word from every Fed official for fresh clues into the central banks future monetary policy plans and most importantly, confirmation of when the first rate cut will come.

Commodity Price Forecast

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

About the Author

Phil Carrcontributor

Phil Carr is co-founder and the Head of Trading at The Gold & Silver Club, an international Commodities Trading, Research and Data-Intelligence firm.

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