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Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Avoids sub-30 Despite BTC Losing Streak

By:
Bob Mason
Published: Aug 19, 2022, 01:48 UTC

On Thursday, BTC extended its losing streak to five sessions, with pressure mounting early in the Friday session. Fed chatter needs monitoring today.

BTC Technical Analysis - FX Empire

Key Insights:

  • On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) extended the losing streak to five sessions, with a 0.55% fall to end the day at $23,204.
  • While recession fears eased, investor jitters over the Fed and the September monetary policy decision weighed on the broader crypto market.
  • Despite the fall, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index rose from 30/100 to 33/100, signaling a pickup in investor sentiment.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.55%. Following a 2.19% decline on Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $23,204. Notably, BTC ended the day at sub-$24,000 for the third session in a row as BTC extended its losing streak to five.

Through a bullish morning, BTC rose to a mid-day high of $23,600. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,125, BTC slid to a final hour low of $23,115.

However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,855, BTC ended the day at $23,204.

There were no crypto news events to influence, leaving BTC and the broader market in the hands of market sentiment towards the US economy and Fed monetary policy. While the US economic indicators eased fears of a US economic recession, hawkish FOMC member chatter left BTC in the red.

The NASDAQ 100 was unable to end the current losing streak, with a modest 0.21% gain failing to draw in sidelined investors.

NASDAQ correlation weakens.
BTC-NASDAQ 190822 5-Minute Chart

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Avoids sub-30 Despite BTC Losing Streak

Today, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 30/100 to 33/100. Another bitcoin sell-off and a failure to revisit $24,000 failed to send the Index to sub-30. The modest increase suggests investor resilience despite BTC extending its losing streak to five sessions.

Later today, there are no US economic indicators to influence, leaving BTC and the Index in the hands of FOMC member chatter.

The Index needs to return to 40 to support a BTC return to $25,000. However, having failed to move into the Neutral zone for the first time since April 6, current levels put the Extreme Fear zone in view.

Fear & Greed Index avoids sub-30.
Fear & Greed 190822

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 1.36% to $22,888. A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,013.

BTC under pressure.
BTCUSD 190822 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

A move through S1 and the $23,306 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,498 and the Thursday high of $23.600.

BTC would need a bullish morning session to support a return to $23,500.

An extended crypto rally would see BTC test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $23,791 and resistance at $24,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $24,276.

Failure to move through S1 and the pivot would leave the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $22,821 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should steer clear of sub-$22,500 and the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $22,336.

BTC support levels in play.
BTCUSD 190822 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $23,252.

The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish price signals.

A move through the 200-day EMA (23,252) would bring R1 ($23,498) and the 100-day EMA ($23,608) into play.

However, a pullback from the 200-day EMA would see BTC test S2 ($22,821) and support at $22,500.

EMAs bearish.
BTCUSD 190822 4 Hourly Chart

Trend Analysis

Looking at the trends, BTC would need a move through the August high of $25,203 and $25,500 to target the June high of $31,956. Avoiding the most recent low of $22,390 would support a move through the 200-day EMA to ease selling pressure.

A BTC return to $25,000 would give the bulls a run at the June high. From $32,000, BTC should have a clear run at the May high of $40,004.

For the bears, the June 18 low of $17,601 remains the target. A fall through $20,000 and the July low of $18,768 would likely test investor resilience.

However, as shown below, BTC is on a trend of higher lows, supporting a more bullish outlook.

Trends
BTCUSD 190822 Trend Analysis

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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