Bitcoin Is Trading Like a Risk Asset, Not Digital Gold

Bitcoin is not trading like digital gold right now. It’s trading like a risk asset and the same forces moving stocks are moving it. When fear spikes, Bitcoin sells off. When fear fades, it follows equities higher. That’s the reality of institutional ownership. Fund managers who need liquidity sell Bitcoin alongside everything else.

Ahmed Yousre, Global Market Strategist at PU Prime commented:

Supply risks continue to dominate price action
Crude oil prices remain firmly supported as markets increasingly price in prolonged supply uncertainty, despite ongoing ceasefire extensions. While diplomatic efforts have helped reduce immediate escalation risks, the lack of meaningful progress toward a durable agreement continues to keep the geopolitical risk premium elevated.

At the center of concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint responsible for a significant share of global oil transportation. Recent disruptions, combined with visible demonstrations of control over shipping routes, have reinforced fears that energy flows could remain constrained in the near term. Importantly, even if a formal reopening were to occur, normalization in physical supply is unlikely to be immediate, as tanker operators typically require sustained stability before resuming full operations.

From a macro standpoint, the implications are clear. Elevated oil prices continue to sustain inflationary pressures globally, complicating the policy outlook for central banks—particularly the Federal Reserve. As inflation risks remain sticky, expectations for near-term rate cuts have been scaled back, reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate environment. This dynamic not only supports the US dollar but also feeds back into commodity markets by maintaining tight financial conditions.

Looking ahead, oil markets remain highly headline-driven, with price action closely tied to geopolitical developments. A meaningful de-escalation could trigger a sharp unwind in prices as supply concerns ease. However, in the absence of clear diplomatic progress, the current environment suggests that upside risks remain skewed, with markets continuing to price in uncertainty rather than resolution.

The Fed Is the Main Driver

The Fed is running Bitcoin right now and I don’t think enough traders are paying attention to that. Two or three rate cuts priced in and Bitcoin was knocking on $100,000. That’s not ancient history. That was earlier this year. The Iran war changed that. Oil went higher, inflation expectations followed and the rate cut bets came off the table fast. Bitcoin dropped with stocks. That’s not a coincidence. Cheap money flows into risk assets. Expensive money flows out. Bitcoin is on the wrong side of that trade right now.

Oil Is the Link Between the War and Bitcoin

The chain is simple and I want to walk through it. Hormuz disrupted means oil stays elevated. Elevated oil keeps inflation running. Running inflation keeps the Fed on hold. Fed on hold means nobody is pricing in rate cuts. No rate cuts means Bitcoin stays under pressure. Run it backwards and you get the rally. War ends, Hormuz opens, oil drops, inflation fades, Fed gets room, Bitcoin moves. That’s the trade. Right now we’re in the wrong half of it.

The April 22 Ceasefire Expiration Is the Next Binary Event

April 22 is the date that matters. I’m watching it closely. The ceasefire either holds and talks progress or it doesn’t. If it holds, oil comes off and rate cut odds start recovering. Bitcoin follows. If it falls apart, oil spikes, inflation comes back and Bitcoin goes back to testing the lows.

Trump reminded everyone last week how fast the tone can shift. One statement about wiping out Iranian civilization moved oil 5% before anyone had time to react. Everything connected to oil repriced with it including Bitcoin.

Even a Reopening Won’t Fix Things Overnight

One more thing about the Strait. Even a formal reopening doesn’t fix things overnight. Tanker operators don’t normalize traffic until they trust the security situation on the water. Infrastructure damage takes weeks to assess and months to repair. The market jumps on the headline. The physical supply takes much longer to catch up.

Technical Outlook

Technically, I want to build my analysis around the top-down approach: Monthly, Weekly, Daily and trade it from the bottom-up approach using various combinations of 5-minute, 15-minute, 60-minute and daily. Or if you’re into the bigger picture, use a daily, weekly, monthly strategy.

Assuming you’ve already established your long-term decision about whether you’re an investor or trader of Bitcoin, I’m going to look at the daily chart using the swing chart and moving average indicators.

Daily Chart: Higher Bottoms Signal Potential Trend Change

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Daily Chart. Source: TradingView

After reaching a bottom at $60,001.00 on February 6, Bitcoin has posted two higher-bottoms at $62,534.61 and $64,938.66. That’s one of the first signs of an impending change in trend. My analysis shows that the main trend on the daily chart changed to up on April 14, when buyers took out the previous main top at $76,022.60. In order to sustain the uptrend, it’s going to have to continue to build a series of higher-tops and higher-bottoms. The next sign of strength will be a trade through $78,390.00. But holding the last swing bottom at $64,938.66 will be the key to sustainability. Otherwise, the whole process has to start over again.

Moving Average Analysis: The 200-Day MA Remains the Key Problem

When it comes to moving average analysis, because of the steep drop from early December to early February, the 50-day moving average at $70,726.77 is trading on the weak side of the slower moving 200-day moving average at $86,103.63. Traders who read moving average crossovers see this as a bearish sign that will last until the situation reverses.

There are some investors, however, that use the moving averages as trend indicators. In this case, with Bitcoin trading on the strong side of the 50-day moving average, they are viewing the setup as short-term bullish.

However, the 200-day moving average at $86,103.63 is still the problem. With Bitcoin currently trading below this major indicator, they see the long-term trend down. Some traders, however, look at the 200-day MA as resistance and a trigger point for a breakout to the upside.

Weekly Chart: Retracement Levels Define the Road Ahead

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Weekly Chart. Source: TradingView

Reaction to retracement levels will also offer clues as to the strength and direction of the market. With the short-term range $97,963.62 to $60,001.00, its 50% level at $78,982.31 is the next major resistance and breakout level. On April 17, it may have stopped the rally at $78,390.00.

As long as it holds above the 50-day moving average, it may make another run at $78,982.31 and this time it may break out to the upside with the 200-day moving average the next target.

Crossing to the strong side of the 200-day MA will indicate the buying is getting stronger. Perhaps strong enough to trigger a rally into the October to February retracement zone at $93,148.50 to $100,971.31.

Don’t Over-Rely on Old Market Correlations

For those of you looking at other markets and their influence on Bitcoin, I think you have to reduce reliance on the old markets and look at what’s currently influencing prices. If you’ve watched charts as long as I have, you know that things don’t line up as perfectly as you would like. This is especially true for assets that traders try to categorize. Usually, the long-term assessment of a market is right, i.e. it’s a risky asset, it’s a safe-haven, it’s a store of value, but over the short-run, noise can dominate a market causing it to lose its anchor. Traders get frustrated because it’s “not doing what it’s supposed to during a”…war, deficit, AI revolution, weak dollar, rate cut confusion. These traders are looking for an easy headline to follow, but nothing is easy when it comes to investing and trading. These traders tend to leave the market just at the time it’s starting to make sense.

I sense that could be going on now with the formation of the elongated support zone at $60,001.00 to $78,390.00. So be patient. We don’t need to see an exact correlation to the big picture like the U.S. stock market chart. Sometimes little subtle moves can speak volumes so make sure you are watching closely the reaction to the test of the high at $78,390.00 over the short-run, it could hold the key to the next major move in Bitcoin.