Crude Oil Price Analysis – Oil Looks Heavy on Monday

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market rallied after gapping to the upside on Monday but then gave back those gains. This was partially in reaction to the idea that the Americans and the Iranians weren’t going to be talking, but really, I think it was also exacerbated by the idea of thin liquidity at the moment, as there were several central bank-based holidays and federal holidays in places like New Zealand, Japan, and Australia.

With that being said, it’s not a huge surprise that we really haven’t made any real decisions early. The $100 level continues to be a bit of a barrier that I think a lot of people will be watching. If we can break above there, then the market can truly take off to the upside, but right now I think that’s going to be difficult. To the downside, we have the 50-day EMA sitting at $88 and we may drift towards there, assuming things don’t flare up in the Middle East again—that’s a big assumption, of course.

Brent Technical Analysis

Brent markets look exhausted. I do think that they may be getting ready to either consolidate in this $106 level or maybe roll over and try to reach the $100 level. If they were to roll over and start heading towards $100, that would coincide with the light sweet crude oil market rolling over towards the $88 level, so maybe it’s all setting up for the same thing. Either way, oil doesn’t look as strong as it once did, and that’s probably the main gist here in this, and many other markets, as the noise has been deafening.