BTC/USD
As mentioned previously, the US dollar has broken significantly below the $8000 level, and during the day on Thursday we even solve the market reach towards the $7300 level. I think it’s only a matter of time before the sellers get involved, and as I record this it looks like we are already starting to see signs of exhaustion after a short-term bounce. Quite frankly, four weeks now if you simply sold rallies you would be making money in this market. Bitcoin seems to be losing a lot of its luster, and now I think we could see a move down to the $6000 level over the longer-term, perhaps over the next couple of months.
BTC/JPY
Bitcoin of course fell against the Japanese yen as well, as we are below the ¥850,000 level, looking to break down below the ¥800,000 level next. Longer-term, the ¥700,000 level is the bottom of longer-term consolidation, and I think that is where we will try to go. It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which I’d be willing to buy this market until we test that area, and of course it holds rather significantly. If we were to break down below the ¥700,000 level below, that would be catastrophic for this market and more than likely send bitcoin into a bit of a tailspin. At this point, I’m not convinced of any rally until we break to a fresh, new high, somewhere near the ¥1.1 million level. However, I will keep you up-to-date on any changes in attitude in this market.