Bitcoin Price Forecast: Dollar’s Death Cross Signals $150K BTC Target

Bitcoin (BTC) could be gearing up for a fresh leg higher, potentially toward $150,000, as the US Dollar Index (DXY) flashes a bearish “death cross,” a technical pattern that last coincided with a 300% BTC rally.

Dollar Weakness Could Be Bitcoin’s Strength

A death cross forms when an asset’s 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) drops below its 200-period EMA.

In the DXY’s case, this rare formation just occurred for the first time since mid-2020. Back then, the dollar entered a modest downtrend ahead of forming the death cross in November 2020.

Bitcoin, which has maintained a negative correlation with the dollar on longer-timeframes, rallied from around $16,000 to around $65,000 in less than six months, marking a 300% surge.

History appears to be rhyming. The DXY is once again below the 50/200-week EMAs, confirming a fresh death cross. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is consolidating just under $117,000, having recently broken above key resistance levels.

A weakening dollar tends to boost demand for alternative stores of value like Bitcoin, especially among institutional investors and global markets seeking protection from US monetary debasement.

Moreover, BTC is increasingly treated as a hedge in periods of dollar weakness, especially when the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates or if fiscal deficits widen.

In 2025 so far, the dollar has dropped by over 10% while Bitcoin’s performance in the same period comes to be over +24.50%.

Dollar appetite in 2025 has weakened due to rising US fiscal deficits, tariff-driven trade tensions, rate-cut expectations, and BRICS de-dollarization.

On the other hand, Bitcoin has rallied in 2025 amid accelerating ETF inflows, corporate treasury adoption, and growing demand as a hedge against dollar debasement.

Can Dollar Death Cross Boost Bitcoin to $150,000?

A key catalyst behind Bitcoin’s $150,000 target is growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates as early as next month.

Fed futures pricing shows markets assigning over 90% probability of a rate cut in September. Lower interest rates would further pressure the dollar, making yield-less assets like Bitcoin more attractive to both institutional and retail investors.

At the same time, global M2 money supply is climbing again, a sign of easing monetary conditions.

Meanwhile, global M2 money supply growth—another key driver of Bitcoin cycles—has begun to decelerate.

After peaking at 9.8% year-over-year in July 2025, M2 growth has slowed to 7.2%, forming a potential macro top. Historically, Bitcoin has topped 90 to 100 days after M2 peaks, which would place a potential BTC price peak around October 2025.

Technical targets from prominent analysts—including Cas Abbe and Bernstein—remain in the $150,000 range, citing ETF inflows, post-halving supply constraints, and strengthening institutional demand.

The 2.618 Fibonacci extension on BTC’s weekly chart also aligns near $151,000, reinforcing this target.