Bitcoin Prices Forecast: BTC Struggles Amid SEC’s ETF Approval Holdup

Key Insights:

• BTC faced its sixth consecutive decline on Sunday, ending the week down 10.44% at $26,498.
• A silent Sunday session: absence of major crypto events leaves BTC investors wary and searching for a catalyst.
• SEC’s hesitance on BTC-Spot ETFs casts a shadow; investors speculate on US Presidential Election’s impact.

Sunday Overview

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) declined by 0.29%. Following a 0.20% loss on Saturday, BTC ended the week down 10.44% to $26,498. BTC extended the losing streak to six sessions.

Investor Sentiment Remains Bearish Without a Bullish Catalyst

It was a quiet Sunday session, with no crypto events to shift investor sentiment, leaving BTC in the red for the sixth consecutive session.

Increasing doubts over the SEC approving the BTC-Spot ETF applications weighed on buyer appetite. This week, investors will likely respond further to delays to other ETF applications, with the crypto community speculating on whether the US Presidential Election can turn the tide for the digital asset space.

The loss of a crypto advocate also resonated following the SpaceX news. Adoption remains a material driver for the crypto market, with investors responding favorably to mainstream companies entering the digital asset space. SpaceX cutting its BTC holdings was a blow for the broader crypto market.

The SEC acknowledgment that “the underlying assets are nothing but computer code with no inherent value” delivered broader market support over the weekend. However, BTC bucked the weekend trend. The SEC deems BTC a commodity, leaving BTC unresponsive to the SEC filing.

BTC Bears to Target Sub-$26,000 on Lingering Headwinds

Investors are in need of a bullish catalyst to change the mood. The lack of progress toward a US crypto regulatory framework that supports innovation while protecting investors remains a stumbling block.

From a BTC-Spot ETF perspective, the lack of a regulatory framework will likely delay the SEC approval of the Spot ETFs. The SEC opened the Ark Invest application for public comment, extending the approval period by 21 days.

Last week, the news of the SEC pushing back the decision-making process to 2024 was FUD. However, SEC concerns over market manipulation and surveillance-sharing agreements between entities such as Coinbase (COIN) and the applicants suggest further delays until the necessary framework is in place.

The lack of a US digital asset regulatory framework will continue to give the SEC reasons to block the launch of Spot ETFs.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Actions

This morning, BTC was down 0.38% to $26,398. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $26,502 before falling to a low of $26,353.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC sitting below the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band. After six consecutive days in the red, BTC remained below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 21.86 continued to show BTC in oversold territory. The RSI aligns with the EMAs supporting a fall to sub-$26,000 to bring the $25,650 – $25,340 support band into play. However, a move through the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band and the 200-day EMA would give the bulls a run at $28,000.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC sits below the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band. After the extended run of losses, BTC remains below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reaffirming bearish near-term price signals.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 27.07 shows BTC in oversold territory, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the EMAs, leaving sub-$26,000 and the $25,650 – $25,340 support band in play. However, a move through the lower level of the $26,850 – $27,500 resistance band would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA.