BTC and a Return to $29,000 in the Hands of US Stats and Earnings

Key Insights:

• On Monday, BTC fell by 0.33% to end the day at $27,522.
• Risk-off sentiment weighed, with US economic indicators sending the NASDAQ Composite Index and BTC into the red.
• The technical indicators are bearish, signaling a return to $25,000.

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.33%. Following a 0.77% loss on Sunday, BTC ended the day at $27,522. Significantly, BTC visited sub-$27,000 for the first time since March 28.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early morning high of $28,007. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $27,848 before sliding to a late afternoon low of $26,978. BTC briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $27,354 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $27,097 before ending the day at $27,522.

US Economic Indicators and the NASDAQ Composite Index Weigh

It was a relatively quiet start to the week. US economic indicators and Fed Fear weighed on investor sentiment, leaving the NASDAQ Composite Index and BTC in the red.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index fell from -15.7 to -23.4 in April, with the Chicago Fed Manufacturing Index holding steady at -0.19. While the economic indicators were disappointing, investor sentiment toward Fed monetary policy turned more hawkish.

According to the CME FedWatchTool, the probability of a 25-basis point May interest rate hike rose from 89.1% to 98.9% on Monday. Significantly, the chances of a June hike climbed from 23.4% to 24.7%.

The NASDAQ Composite Index reflected the mood, falling by 0.29%, with the NASDAQ mini down 10.75 points this morning.

The Day Ahead

It is a busy Monday session. US economic indicators and corporate earnings are in focus.

On the economic calendar, US consumer confidence figures for April will influence. A CB Consumer Confidence fall from 104.2 to sub-100 would weigh on riskier assets.

However, the US earnings calendar will also draw interest. Big names on the US earnings calendar include Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Visa Inc. (V), McDonald’s Corp. (MCD), General Motors Co. (GM), and PepsiCo Inc. (PEP).

While US economic indicators and corporate earnings will influence, the crypto news wires will remain the focal point. SEC v Ripple case-related chatter and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will move the dial. Regulatory activity and US lawmaker chatter will also draw interest.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.07% to $27,504. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $27,596 before falling to a low of $27,503.

BTC Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

BTC needs to move through the $27,502 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $28,027. A return to $28,000 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires, US corporate earnings, and consumer confidence should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $28,531 and resistance at $29,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $29,560.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,998 in play. However, barring another data-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,500 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $26,473. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,444.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was bearish signals. BTC sat below the 200-day EMA ($28,060). After the Saturday bearish cross, the 50-day EMA pulled back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, sending bearish signals.

A move through the 200-day EMA ($28,060) and R1 ($28,027) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($28,278) and R2 ($28,531). A breakout from the 50-day EMA ($28,278) would bring the $29,000 handle into play. However, failure to move through the 200-day EMA (28,060) would leave S1 ($26,998) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.