Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: $4,560 Breaks as Gold Dives—Is $4,436 Next?

Gold and Silver Markets Today

The US Iran conflict and those Middle Eastern disruptions are doing nothing but pumping up gold’s reputation as a safe haven. Central banks are at it too, – especially in emerging markets, led by Poland, steadily piling up gold as part of a larger effort to get away from the dollar when they’re thinking about global instability and de-dollarization. And all these uncertainties and inflation worries stemming from energy shocks – just adding to gold’s role as a monetary asset. But here’s the catch – higher interest rates are a bit of a fly in the ointment in developed markets.

Silver’s facing an unprecedented sixth straight year of being in the red – all because of sky-high demand from industries that are using a lot more of it then ever before – photovoltaics, electric vehicles, electronics, all that kind of stuff. As a result of this we’re seeing a steady drain on above ground stocks, and mine supply just isn’t keeping up with that. The latest forecasts have taken a minor hit from global economic worries. But the fact remains – there’s a huge shortage in the making, which is all well and good for long term silver investors.

Silver’s this oddball that’s got a mix of monetary and industrial qualities that makes it way more volatile than gold – it gets jumpy in reaction to short term economic signals and changes in energy costs.

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD Extends Bearish Channel Below $4,560

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around $4,543, and it just keeps on falling. Its downward spiral is pretty clear to see if you take a look at the 2 hour chart – it’s stuck in a well-defined bearish channel. Price has just broken below a key horizontal support line at $4,562, which tells us that the bad news for bulls just keeps on coming. We’ve seen time and time again that those lower highs that keep popping up are just a sign of more selling to come.

The 50 day EMA is still standing in the way of the price, but for now it’s acting more as a hindrance than a help to price, while the 200 EMA just sits there, capping any sort of recovery and reinforcing our bearish leanings. Momentum has started to slow, with the RSI falling below 50 and then just keep on falling, which tells us that those last few attempts by the bulls were probably just a bit of a smokescreen.

If sellers can keep up the good work and stay below that $4,560 price point, the next thing the price is going to bounce off of is likely be $4,509 then $4,436, which is the channel base. To get that bearish pressure to subside we might need to see price pop above $4,646

Trade Idea: Sell gold if it drops below $4,560, you might just get lucky and find your way down to $4,509 before you need to think about stopping your losses – that would be around the $4,650 level.

Silver Price Forecast: XAGUSD Breaks Trend Support, Bearish Pressure Builds

Silver (XAGUSD) has dropped down to $72.93, and to make matters worse it’s just broken below a key trend line. All that’s happened is that price didn’t quite manage to stay above that $74.50 resistance line, which is a lower high. Then and only then did it take off downwards at last. It’s been confirmed that that silver price has shifted to bearish. What doesn’t help is that we’ve seen the 50 EMA and that trend support both get knocked out from under the price – and to make matters worse the 200 EMA is still hanging around above it, waiting to take any would be buyers down a peg.

We are starting to see some signs of increasing selling pressure here – the RSI has turned downwards pretty sharply, and right now it’s pointing towards 40, which tells us that we’ve still got loads of potential downside. Some people might be looking at that $70.70 level as a place to hang out for a bit – but if the selling pressure don’t go away then we could easily get to $68.00 before too long. If bulls can find some sort of respite then they will probably need to get the price back above that $74.50 resistance first.

Trade Idea: If you can sell below $73.50 then the price might just head on down towards $70.70 – your stop would be way up around $75.00.