BTC Fear & Greed Index Rises to Top End of Current Range on BTC Gain

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) extended its winning streak to two sessions with a modest 0.23% gain.
• A lack of crypto events or external market forces left less hawkish Fed chatter from Friday to deliver support.
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index rose from 20/100 to 23/100, supported by a BTC hold onto the $19,000 handle throughout the session.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.29%. Following a 0.61% gain on Friday, BTC ended the day at $19,219. Notably, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the fifteenth consecutive session while also avoiding sub-$19,000.

A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $19,124. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,812, BTC rose to a mid-afternoon high of $19,267. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,399, BTC fell back to sub-$19,200 before ending the day at $19,219.

A lack of crypto events left investors to consider less hawkish Fed chatter. Bets of a hawkish December Fed rate hike subsided over the weekend, delivering support to the crypto market.

According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 75-basis point December rate hike sits at 45.6%, down from 75.4% on Thursday. With the markets having baked in a 75-basis point hike for November, December remains the focal point. However, economic data could deliver some uncertainty in the week ahead.

FOMC members entered the blackout period on Saturday ahead of prelim private sector PMI numbers on Monday. A pickup in service sector activity, an increase in the pace of hiring, and an uptrend in price pressures could refuel bets of a 75-basis point hike in December.

The Fear & Greed Index Rises to 23/100 on Bullish BTC Session

Today, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 20/100 to 23/100. After a Saturday fall to 20/100, despite a bullish BTC session on Friday, a bullish Saturday crypto session delivered support. BTC avoided sub-$19,000, likely contributing to a marginal improvement in investor sentiment.

The Index remains within a tight range, hitting a high of 26/100 on October 6 while frequently visiting a low of 20/100. Notably, the only exit from the Extreme Fear zone was short-lived, with the Index sitting well below the September high of 34/100 that preceded the US CPI report for August.

The latest chatter from the Fed should support an uptrend and return to the Fear zone. However, economic indicators would have to affirm softer economic conditions to justify the less hawkish stance.

For the bulls, the Index will need to continue avoiding sub-20/100 to support a shift in sentiment. However, a fall to sub-20/100 would signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.19% to $19,182. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $19,229 before falling to a low of $19,179.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $19,207 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,290. Following less hawkish FOMC member chatter and today’s FedWatch Tool numbers, a BTC move through the Saturday high of $19,278 would signal a bullish session.

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,361 and $19,500 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $19,515.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,136 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$18,900. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $19,053 and support at $19,000 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,899.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,234.

The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA to deliver bearish signals.

BTC needs to move through the 50-day EMA ($19,234) to give the bulls a run at R1 ($19,290) and the 100-day EMA ($19,309). The 200-day EMA sits at $19,521. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($19,234) would leave S1 ($19,136) in play.