Centrus Energy (LEU) Price Forecast: Can Backlog Conversion and a Falling Wedge Squeeze Price Higher?

Centrus Energy (LEU) is currently trading at 189.19, at the time of writing, and the daily timeframe reveals a falling wedge pattern with an upper trendline stretching from around 437 down to 190. The lower support trendline stretches from around 250 to 141. The wedge is mostly filled, with price compressing into the narrow end of the pattern, which is a typical indication of an impending breakout.

Falling Wedges Usually Break to the Upside

Centrus bulls still have to rally behind the stock to make this happen. Luckily, fundamentals are currently leaning in their favor.

Centrus Energy (LEU) daily chart showing the falling wedge, the 20/50/100/200 EMA cluster, the 200 EMA near 198.30, and support at 157.88. Source: TradingView.

On August 5, 2026, Centrus told investors that its second-quarter revenue had gone up by 14% from $154.5 million to $176.1. More notably, the company disclosed commercial backlog numbers that reflected a bright future ahead for its business. According to the report, backlog increased to $4.5 billion, extending through 2040, cementing the company’s workload and revenue for many years to come.

In addition to all this, in a non-dilutive agreement, Centrus signed a deal worth $900 million with the U.S. Department of Energy to fund the development of its commercial centrifuge without having to give up any equity or share ownership. This sort of deal is good for business, as it doesn’t give away control of the company in exchange for a capital raise.

Finally, Centrus Energy is also reaping the rewards of first-mover advantage in the next-gen nuclear reactor sector through its High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) domination in the United States, as the company is the only licensed, U.S.-owned producer of HALEU in the country.

Key Levels Inside the Falling Wedge

The key levels to watch inside the falling wedge are the 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMA lines. They sit respectively at 177.82, 176.58, 186.98, and 198.21 at the time of writing. The four lines are squeezed together and signal that a breakout is near. Price already sits above the first three EMAs, leaving the 200 EMA above it as the next resistance level to test.

If LEU can push past the 200 EMA at 198.21 and close outside the wedge beyond $200 on the daily timeframe, we have a clean breakout confirmation that opens an upward path to the 220–235 zone.

The RSI reads 57.81, which is slightly above average and entering buyer territory with enough room to run before becoming overbought.

The Bears Still Have a Chance

If the ceiling of the wedge holds and price rejects that level, we can expect a drop below the 177.82 – 176.58 EMA cluster. This will open up the path to the 157.88 support zone that has held since April, and then the wedge’s lower support trendline at 132. A break and close beyond 132 on the daily timeframe can send price into the 120 –100 zone.

Why the Fundamentals Cut Both Ways

A closer look at Centrus Energy’s fundamentals reveals that both the bears and bulls have valid theses.

While the company’s revenue climbed in the second quarter, its profit margin got smaller. Its diluted GAAP EPS has dropped from $1.59 in the previous year to $0.77 now. This decline means the company generated smaller profit per share than it did last year, and it was as a result of lower sales of enriched materials and greater costs incurred in an attempt to scale the business.

Capital Drag

Centrus guided to $350 million to $500 million of capital deployment in 2026, which means the company is pouring a ton of money into infrastructure development, leading to short-term profits absorbing all the cost impacts while long-term revenue in its commercial backlog waits to be unlocked.

Analysts Are Split on the Stock’s Future Outlook

According to Investing.com data, 12 analysts maintain a Buy rating while 5 stand behind a Hold rating, making the overall consensus a Buy. Their price targets range from a Low of $170 to a High of $340.

The Next Catalyst to Watch Out for Is in December

Centrus plans to hold its first investor day at its American Centrifuge plant in Piketon, and the company is expected to have completed its first Oak Ridge centrifuge by then. If Centrus is able to deliver on the centrifuge, it confirms its ability to execute business plans. A failure to deliver casts doubt on investors and creates a bad picture for the bulls.