Nasdaq Index: CoreWeave, Super Micro and Nebius Rally as Nasdaq Stalls Near High

Nasdaq Stalls Below Resistance After CPI and AI Earnings Deliver the Perfect Setup

CoreWeave more than doubled its revenue and Super Micro raised guidance above estimates on the same morning the CPI report came in contained.

The Nasdaq rallied at the opening on that combination and then stopped. Buyers could not push the index through last week’s high for a fifth straight session despite getting lower yields, stronger AI earnings and an inflation number that keeps the September hold trade alive. The S&P 500 added modestly while the Dow barely moved, which tells you the money went straight to technology and stayed there.

At 16:00 GMT, the Nasdaq Composite was trading at 26,558.02, up 112.58 points or 0.43%. The S&P 500 was at 7,743.69, up 15.49 points or 0.20%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 53,810.57, up 18.72 points or 0.03%.

The morning bid has not been given back. It has not been built on either, and the Nasdaq is still sitting below last week’s high after four consecutive failures to break through.

Daily Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) Technical Analysis

The Nasdaq Composite is trading higher at mid-session, but the market has not moved much since the opening. Based on the strength at the opening, we were anticipating a breakout over last week’s high at 26739.00, but buyers backed off near 26688.24. After reaching that intraday high, the index has been treading water.

A breakout over 26739.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend, with near-term targets at 26788.62 and 27190.21.

The key level to watch on the downside is the minor pivot at 26473.72. A trade through this level will signal weakness, while a move through yesterday’s low at 26372.31 could trigger a plunge into the next main bottom at 26208.43.

CPI Removed the Immediate Threat but the Fed Is Still Split

July headline CPI rose 0.1% on the month and 3.4% from a year earlier. Core increased 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually, both easing slightly from June. Fed-funds futures shifted to about 55% probability of a hold in September, up from a coin flip before the report.

That gave growth stocks the room they needed. Lower yields help the highest-multiple technology names, and the Nasdaq reacted first. The Dow sitting near flat with three bullish inputs on the table says the buying is rate-sensitive, not broad. Three policymakers voted for a hike at the last meeting, and the next round of inflation data arrives before September.

CoreWeave Proved the AI Cloud Market Is Still Capacity-Constrained

CoreWeave surged roughly 20% after revenue reached $2.58 billion, more than doubling from a year ago. Adjusted operating margin came in at 5% against a 2.7% estimate, and the company raised its capital-spending forecast with near-term capacity essentially sold out.

The stock is leading the Nasdaq because it answered the question investors have been asking for months. AI spending is producing revenue, pricing power is improving, and the backlog behind the current capacity says the constraint is supply, not demand.

CoreWeave gapped at the opening above the 50-day moving average at $91.09, the 200-day moving average at $93.25 and a three-month 50% level at $99.40. All three points are new support. Today will be all about this hot stock generating enough upside momentum to challenge the last two main tops at $122.00 and $132.15 and the May 6 top at $138.25. At 13:39 GMT, CoreWeave is trading at $110.96, up $20.64 or +22.85%.

Super Micro’s Record Orders Confirm the Hardware Side of the Trade

Super Micro jumped about 17% after guiding first-quarter earnings to $1.01-$1.10 per share against a $0.76 estimate and revenue of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion against $11.68 billion. Record orders and a growing customer list for AI-ready server systems put it in the same trade as CoreWeave but from the hardware side. CoreWeave rents the capacity. Super Micro builds the servers. Both are reporting demand acceleration at different points of the same supply chain.

Super Micro Computer gapped at the opening to $34.99, then continued to its intraday high at $37.18, where it ran into sellers. Currently, it is trading at $35.94, up $4.34 or 13.73%.

The short-term range is $51.40 to $23.38. Its retracement zone is $37.39 to $40.70. Today’s rally stopped just short of this zone before sellers emerged. Support is the 200-day moving average at $31.91 and the 50-day moving average at $31.15.

The AI Bid Is Spreading Across the Infrastructure Chain

The semiconductor index is up about 3% on track for its best session in more than a week. The buying is not a single-stock Nvidia move. Dell and Micron are both higher. Cisco is following. IREN, Applied Digital and Lumentum are all gaining on their own catalysts. Buyers are taking positions across chips, memory, servers, cloud capacity and optical networking. That is the breadth the AI trade needs if the Nasdaq is going to close the gap to its record instead of stalling below resistance again.

Nebius Gaps Above Three Months of Resistance on Quarterly Results

Nebius is sharply higher after quarterly results. The stock is currently trading at $246.37 after gapping higher at the opening to $226.00. The opening surge jumped above the 50-day moving average at $221.57 and a short-term 50% level at $222.83. The move was impressive enough to bring in new buyers. The stock is now attempting to sustain a breakout over the short-term 61.8% level at $241.00. A close over this level will put it in a strong position to continue the rally over the near-term with potential targets at $290.60 and $299.86.

Stocks in the News

Cava rallied after topping second-quarter estimates. Wendy’s jumped on a report that Trian Fund Management is preparing a bid to take the company private. H&R Block rose on stronger fiscal 2027 guidance. Quantinuum gained on better-than-expected revenue guidance.

National Vision fell after full-year guidance failed to impress. Aecom lost ground after weak fiscal third-quarter results.

What to Watch

The Nasdaq got CPI relief and AI earnings confirmation on the same morning and still could not break last week’s high. The index topped out near 26,688 and has not added a point since. CoreWeave and Super Micro are carrying the Nasdaq on their own. If those two start giving back their opening gaps while the index sits at the same level it printed an hour into the session, the morning bid was the whole trade.

The Nasdaq is pressing toward its fifth attempt at last week’s high. CoreWeave gapped above three months of resistance and Super Micro stalled just under its retracement zone. Whether those stocks hold their opening gaps or start filling them into the close tells you whether the AI earnings reaction has staying power or was fully priced by the opening bell.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.