Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – November 16, 2015 Forecast

Safe-haven bids helped drive December Comex Gold futures nearly 1 percent in early trading on Monday. The move was fueled by investors looking for safety following Friday’s deadly attacks in Paris. Global equity markets broke initially on the news and investors moved their investment capital into gold for protection.

Volume and volatility are expected to be up today so traders should be prepared for a possible expanded range. Traders are likely to respond throughout the session to any news related to Paris or increased military activity in Syria. Uncertainty related to the geopolitical events could help underpin gold throughout the week.

Trader reaction to the U.S. consumer inflation report on Tuesday and the release of the Fed minutes on Wednesday could add to the expected volatility.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Earlier in the session, gold rallied, making $1073.00 a new minor bottom.

The rally stopped at $1097.40 which was essentially a test of the September 11 bottom at $1097.70. This was a normal reaction since “old bottoms tend to become new tops”. If upside momentum continues then look for the move to extend into the October 2 main bottom at $1103.80.

The trigger point for a steep upside breakout is $1103.80. The daily chart indicates there is room to the upside to rally with potential targets a 50% level at $1128.10 and a steep downtrending angle at $1131.10.

Although gold rallied over $20.00 from last week’s low at $1073.00, we’re still not certain that a support base has been established. This could mean we’ll see a pullback into potential support angles at $1081.00 and $1077.00. Counter-trend buyers may try to form potentially bullish secondary higher bottoms at either one of these angles.

Today’s price action is likely to be news driven so be prepared for a possible two-sided trade. Aggressive counter-trend traders are going to try to establish support at $1081.00 or $1077.00. Overtaking $1097.70 and $1103.80 will also indicate the presence of buyers.