Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – November 4, 2016 Forecast

December Comex Gold futures are trading slightly lower shortly before the cash market opening. The market is also trading inside Thursday’s range which suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. Although there is a U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report today, after the initial reaction to this report, traders are likely to focus on the U.S. presidential election.

With the election scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, investors will essentially have only Friday, Monday and Tuesday to hedge their risky assets. Some stock market investors may not want to wait that long and may decide to take protection today. This could lead to increased volatility and it could trigger a strong rally by gold late in the session. It all depends on whether portfolio managers feel they have enough of their exposure protected.

Clinton is concerned to be the status quo and Trump, the unknown. If the polls continue to show the voter gap between the two candidates narrowing then gold could find further support.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1309.30 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $1260.10 will change the main trend to down, however, we could also see a potentially bearish closing price reversal top even before we see a change in trend.

The main range is $1347.80 to $1243.20. Its retracement zone is $1295.50 to $1307.70. This zone is the primary upside target. It is controlling the longer-term direction of the market. The market is currently trading inside this zone. Look for a strong upside bias on a sustained move over $1307.80 and a strong downside bias on a sustained move under $1295.50.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1302.70 and the earlier price action, the direction of the market today is likely to be determined by the 50% level at $1295.50.

A sustained move over $1295.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. This 50% level and an uptrending angle at $1296.20 provided support earlier when gold made its intraday low at $1295.70.

The first upside target is the Fibonacci level at $1307.80, followed by Wednesday’s high at $1309.30. This is a possible trigger point for a further rally into a downtrending angle at $1316.80. This angle is the trigger point for an acceleration into the next downtrending angle at $1332.30. This is the last potential resistance angle before the $1347.80 main top.

A sustained move under $1295.50 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart is wide open to the downside under this angle with the next targets $1285.80 and $1278.10.

Essentially, we’re looking for a possible acceleration to the upside on a sustained move over $1309.30 and a possible acceleration to the downside under $1295.50.