Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – November 9, 2015 Forecast

December Comex High Grade Copper futures finished lower on Friday in reaction to the stronger U.S. Dollar. The Greenback traded sharply higher after the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report exceeded expectations. Traders now place the odds of a December Fed rate hike at 70%. Higher interest rates will mean the strength in the U.S. Dollar is likely to continue. Since copper is dollar-denominated, prices are expected to continue to slide.

Copper prices could face renewed selling pressure because of the Chinese trade data report, due to be released over the week-end. Another drop in imports will be a sign of weakness.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Friday’s close under a long-term uptrending angle at 2.2620 and a short-term downtrending angle at 2.2420 have set up the market for further downside pressure with the September 29 main bottom at 2.2255 the next likely target.

There may be a technical bounce on the first test of 2.2255 because of short-term oversold conditions. However, this level is also a trigger point for an acceleration to the downside since the next major target is the April 28 main bottom at 2.1740.

Based on the close at 2.2420, the key angle to watch today comes in at the same price. Trader reaction to this angle will likely tell us whether the bulls or the bears are in control. If there is a rally, however, it will likely be triggered by profit-taking or short-covering since the fundamentals are too weak to attract real buyers.

A sustained move over 2.2420 could trigger a short-covering rally into 2.2620. The short-covering will likely increase on a sustained move over 2.2620.

A sustained move under 2.2420 will indicate the presence of sellers. The chart is wide open to the downside with 2.1740 a possible near-term target.