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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 22, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil added 21 cents to trade at 82.12 while Brent Oil gained 37 points to trade at 85.77 as traders took advantage of

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 22, 2014 Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 22, 2014 Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 22, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil added 21 cents to trade at 82.12 while Brent Oil gained 37 points to trade at 85.77 as traders took advantage of weak prices to buy up the cheap commodity on hopes of a rebound. Crude oil internationally had a decently volatile session yesterday day as the commodity, especially the US WTI recorded moderate gains during the larger part of Asian and European session, fell in the US trading hours before bouncing back from lows to close tad lower around the $81.90 per barrel mark for December expiry. The major mover yesterday was the Brent oil which slipped just around a percent to close near the $85.40 mark as markets once again got concerned over speculation that OPEC would not rush in the short-term to against the sliding global oil prices.

The early morning data over China GDP may act some additional support to industrial commodities including oil. Chinese government data showed GDP in Q2 rose by 7.3% YoY against markets forecasts of an increase in the range of 7.2%. Note that broader risk over the commodity remains due to continuously falling Brent as issues related to supply increasing from the OPEC stays higher, however positive equities and better Chinese gauge is seen providing some support to the WTI.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Monetary Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  CNY

 

Fixed Asset Investment

16.1%

16.3%

16.5%

 

 

  CNY

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

1.9%

1.8%

2.0%

 

 

  CNY

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)

7.3%

7.2%

7.5%

 

 

  CNY

 

Industrial Production

8.0%

7.5%

6.9%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Assist Gov. Lowe

 

 

 

 

There was no European data today.

Crude Oil(15 minutes)20141021142108

Brent Oil(15 minutes)20141021142130
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Adjusted Trade Balance

 

-0.91T

-0.92T

 

 

  AUD

 

CPI (YoY) (Q3)

 

2.3%

3.0%

 

 

  AUD

 

CPI (QoQ) (Q3)

 

0.4%

0.5%

 

 

  GBP

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.2%

0.0%

 

 

  USD

 

CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  CAD

 

Retail Sales (MoM)

 

0.2%

-0.1%

 

 

  CAD

 

BoC Monetary Policy  

 

 

 

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 21 10:30 Spain 3 & 9M T-bill auction

Oct 21 11:00 Finland Maximum Eur 1bn 2.75% Jul 2028 bonds

Oct 21 11:00 Norway Nok 3bn 3% Mar 2024 bonds

Oct 21 11:00 UK GBP 3bn 2.75% Sep 2024 Gilt

Oct 21 12:30 ESM Up to Eur 1bn 6M T-bills (Apr 2015)

Oct 22 11:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund

Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond

Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30

Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28

Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction

Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction

 

 

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