Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis October 29, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 03:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil surprised traders and gained 15 cents today to trade at 81.16 while Brent Oil matched the increase to move up to

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil surprised traders and gained 15 cents today to trade at 81.16 while Brent Oil matched the increase to move up to 85.99. Brent crude oil steadied below $86 a barrel, after dipping close to $85 earlier in the day, as a falling US dollar provided support against weak demand and abundant supply. The US dollar slipped late on Monday after data revealed the US services sector in October grew at its slowest rate since April. A weaker dollar helps global consumers buy dollar-denominated commodities such as oil. But Chinese data on Tuesday showed profits in the industrial sector had slipped in the first nine months of 2014, reinforcing signs of a slowdown in the world’s largest oil importer.

In the US, analysts saw commercial crude stocks up by 3.5-million barrels last week, while stocks of distillate and petrol likely fell, according to a preliminary Reuter’s survey. The American Petroleum Institute will issue its inventory report at 8.30am GMT, and the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration will release the official data on Wednesday.

The cost of a barrel of US light crude may hit $70 and Brent could fall to $80 next spring as oil giants keep up production despite slowing global economic growth, investment bank Goldman Sachs said.

Falling prices spell good news for motorists as the cost of filling up at the forecourt pumps drops. But it could also wreak havoc in the oil industry as oil giants slash budgets. Goldman has slashed its 2015 forecasts as Middle Eastern oil producers such as Saudi Arabia have kept up supplies to try to fend off competition from the upstart US shale oil and gas industry.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)	2.3%	0.6%	1.2%
USD	Core Durable Goods		0.5%	0.4%
USD	Durable Goods Orders		0.5%	-18.4%
USD	S&P/CS HPI Composite –		5.8%	6.7%
USD	CB Con. Confidence		87.0	86.0

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Time	Cur.	Imp.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	JPY		Industrial Production		2.2%	-1.9%
	NZD		Business Confidence			13.4%
	CAD		RMPI (MoM) (Sep)		-1.0%	-2.2%
	USD		FOMC Statement
	USD		Fed Funds Target Rate		0.25%	0.25%