Crude oil drifts a bit lower in early trading on Thursday, as we continue to see the market look for clarity coming out of the Middle East. At this point, we are trying to figure out our next move.
The Light Sweet Crude Oil market has broken above the $85 level and then rolled over a bit. The 50-day EMA as well as the 200-day EMA sit just below and could, at least potentially, offer support. All things being equal, this is a market though that I think is probably going to be moved by headlines more than anything else. And those headlines rely on the Americans and the Iranians and the idea that oil may or may not flow. For what it’s worth, it still isn’t, but it seems like the escalation isn’t going to be as bad as initially feared, according to the markets.
The Brent markets, of course, are doing the same thing. They initially tried to rally a bit, but then gave back as these two contracts typically move in the same general direction. It’s not a huge surprise to see that we are just hanging around. The $85 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and we are looking with that 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA squeezed.
All things being equal, I believe that this is a market that will remain noisy for the same reasons. It’s the rhetoric moves, Iran, the United States, and the market’s perception of where we go next. It’s clear though, that volatility has been a mainstay of this market for a while, and I just don’t see that disappearing. Right now, we’re just seemingly waiting around to figure out what happens next.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.