Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Fed Hike Risk Threatens Support

Gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) started the week under pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. Gold and silver prices traded around $4,350 and $64, respectively. In August, consumer prices jumped 0.4% from July and 3.4% over the past year.

The hot report boosted the odds of a quarter-point Fed rate hike to around 86%. The US 10-year Treasury yield also edged close to 5%. When yields are higher, the holding costs of non-yielding metals are higher. The higher yields can limit any rallies in the gold market.

But rising Middle East tensions are still keeping the safe haven demand alive. Crude oil prices rose above $107 after renewed attacks that heightened concerns about more supply disruptions. This presents mixed picture for precious metals. The war can support gold, but rising oil prices can keep inflation high and keep the Fed hawkish. Silver is under similar pressure and may respond even more forcefully as it also relies on industrial demand. In my view, the Fed’s decision and guidance will determine whether the gold and silver prices will continue to correct or begin a fresh rebound.

Gold Price Forecast: $4,300 Support Faces Fed Rate Risk

XAU/USD Daily Chart: $4,270 Support and $4,530 Resistance

The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price failed to break below $4,300 after Friday’s inflation data. The support zone between $4,270 and $4,300 remains the key support and is defined by the 50-day SMA.

A break below $4,270 will likely open the way for much lower levels toward the $4,160 level. But a break above $4,530 will push prices toward the descending trend line at $4,800 that stretches from the January 2026 highs.

Gold 4-Hour Chart: A Break Below $4,300 Risks Further Losses

The 4-hour chart for spot gold also highlights the importance of the current support at $4,300. Price has formed bearish action above this support. Therefore, a break below $4,300 will likely push prices lower toward the $4,160 level and the $4,000 area.

This bearish price action has developed with the formation of head and shoulders pattern above $4,300. A break above $4,530 is required to erase this bearish development and push prices higher. The RSI also remains below the midline, which indicates negative price action in the spot gold market.

Silver Price Forecast: $60 Support in Focus as Recovery Stalls

XAG/USD Daily Chart: A Break Above $72 Could Open the Way to $90

The daily chart for spot silver shows that the price is consolidating above the triangle pattern after the breakout at $67 in August 2026. A break above the 200-day SMA at $72 will likely open the way for higher prices toward the $90 level.

But a break below $60 will likely push the price back into the triangle and increase the possibility of a breakdown. The RSI has broken below the midline, which indicates bearish pressure in the short term. A break below $60 this time will increase the possibility of a push toward the $50 area.

Silver 4-Hour Chart: Recovery Depends on a Move Above $66

The 4-hour chart for spot silver also shows that the price has broken below ascending broadening wedge pattern at $64.50 and is now consolidating around that level. If the price fails to recover above the $66 area, it will likely decline toward $60 which is the immediate support level.

What to Watch Next for Gold and Silver

Gold and silver remain vulnerable as markets wait for the interest rate decision and guidance by the Fed. Higher inflation and Treasury yields near 5% could keep both metals under pressure. But the tensions in the Middle East may continue to support safe-haven demand.

Gold must hold the $4,270-$4,300 support zone to avoid deeper decline toward $4,160 and $4,000. A break above $4,530 would improve the outlook in the short term and bring $4,800 into focus. Silver must recover above $66 and then $72 to restore bullish momentum. But a break below $60 could expose the $50 area. In my view, the message from the Fed and the reaction in Treasury yields will determine the next major move in both metals.

Read more: Could $100 Oil Push Gold Toward $4,000?