Crude Oil Price Analysis – Crude Oil Drops as Peace Suggested

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market has gapped lower to kick off the trading week on Monday, testing the 200-day EMA almost immediately. The 200-day EMA, of course, is a technical indicator that a lot of people will watch, but I think what we will be watching much closer than that will be whether or not the headlines change because, quite frankly, I’m starting to see details that it’s a little difficult for me to believe that it could be agreed upon by the American.

So, we’ll wait and see, but if we do break down below the 200-day EMA, then that would suggest continuation, perhaps all the way down to $70. If we bounce from here, I’d be looking right around $85 for a potential ceiling.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The Brent market has already broken down below the 200-day EMA, which, of course, is going to open up the possibility of filling the gap all the way down at $73.50 from the beginning of the war. If we rally from here, it’d be somewhere around $90. I would expect to see some type of ceiling.

This is ultimately a market that I think is trying to price in perhaps a little bit more supply than we will have just by opening up the Strait. There will be a 2 or 3-week lag pretty quickly, but we’ll see, we’ll see how this plays out. This is a market that again, unfortunately, the wrong headline could send it straight back up $7 a barrel. So, by all means, be cautious.