Crude Oil Price Analysis – Oil Continues to Fall as Peace Likely

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market has broken below the 200-day EMA early on Tuesday and just kept falling. This, of course, is in reaction to the idea that perhaps we may get a little bit of good news coming out of the signing on Friday of a potential framework for peace between the Americans and the Iranians. The idea, of course, is that the market is trying to price in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

If that’s the case, and it certainly looks like we are going to continue to see this, it looks like light sweet crude could fall all the way down to $70.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The Brent markets look very much the same, and quite frankly, I think they are going to do the same move, with a significant attempt to fill a gap from when the war kicked off. It’s probably only a few days before we do a complete round trip.

That, of course, is assuming that peace does in fact continue to be the way forward. I think that is more likely than not. There are a lot of details that need to be worked out, and eventually, I think the market gets what it wants. It doesn’t mean that it happens right away and it will probably be very messy along the way.

Short-term rallies will certainly happen, and of course, we do have some supply concerns even if we do get the Straits opening up. There has been a significant amount of damage done to the global supply chain, so all things being equal, with ships starting to move through the Strait of Hormuz, oil probably continues to see selling pressure.