Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Continues to Build Up Pressure

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The West Texas Intermediate crude oil market pulled back slightly during the early hours on Tuesday as we continued to bounce around just below the 200 day EMA and just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

At this point, if we can turn around and break above the $80 level, I think that the WTI market could go much higher. I do expect to see that happen sometime in the future, but obviously we’ve got some work to do. The alternate scenario of course, is that we break down below the hammer from last week, which is ostensibly the $76 level.

Then I think we probably go looking to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The market could really start to fall apart. But right now, I think we are building a case for a rally, and therefore it is a scenario that I don’t put much energy into at the moment.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

I see the same thing over here in Brent. We are just below the 200 day EMA. And I do think that suggests that the market is going to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, which makes sense considering everything that has been going on in the Middle East.

Ultimately, this is a situation where I think you have to look at this through the prism of whether or not we can build up enough momentum to finally go higher. And if and when we do, the $84.50 level would be your barrier to overcome right along with the 50-day EMA to really launch this market. I don’t have any interest in shorting the crude oil market right now. Quite frankly, shorting the oil market this time of year is very difficult.

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