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James Hyerczyk

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading higher on Wednesday, shortly after the regular session opening and the release of the latest government inventories report. The price action is being fueled by optimism that the worst of the demand crisis caused by the coronavirus outbreak may have peaked.

At 13:31 GMT, April WTI crude oil is trading $51.28, up $1.11 or +2.19%.

Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6 million barrels during the week-ending February 7 to 438.9 million barrels. This was higher than the 3 million barrel forecast.

At 15:30 GMT, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly inventories report. It is expected to show a 3.0 million barrel build. Given the current upside momentum, a better-than-expected oil report could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Daily April WTI Crude Oil

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $49.63 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through $52.34 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is $52.34 to $49.63. Its 50% level or pivot comes in at $50.99.

The short-term range is $54.39 to $49.50. Its retracement zone at $51.95 to $52.52 is the next potential upside target.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at $51.28, the direction of the April WTI crude oil market the rest of the session on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $50.99.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $50.99 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a move into the 50% level at $51.95. This is followed by a Fibonacci level at $52.52 and a downtrending Gann angle at $52.99. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into $54.20.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $50.99 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is a downtrending Gann angle at $50.40. Crossing to the weak side of this angle could trigger a break into $59.63, followed by $49.50.

Side Notes

A bullish EIA report could trigger a surge into $51.95 to $52.52.

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