James Hyerczyk
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WTI Crude Oil

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are edging higher on Tuesday, recovering from yesterday’s small loss, but gains are being capped by growing concerns over fuel demand in India. The world’s third-biggest crude importer is being hit by a resurgence in COVID-19 cases.

At 08:46 GMT, June WTI crude oil futures are trading $62.37, up $0.46 or +0.74%.

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The price action so far this week suggests investor indecision ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later this week. OPEC along with its allies led by Russia, are set to discuss policy on production at a meeting this week.

The OPEC+ joint technical committee has maintained a forecast for growth in oil demand growth this year, but has concerns about the surging COVID-19 cases in India and elsewhere, three sources from the producer group told Reuters.

Daily June WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher. A trade through $64.38 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. The minor trend turned up on Tuesday when buyers took out the previous minor top at $62.43. Taking out the pair of minor bottoms at $60.66 and $60.61 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The short-term range is $67.29 to $57.29. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at $62.29 to $63.47. Trader reaction to this zone could set the tone for the week.

The minor range is $57.29 to $64.38. Its 50% level or pivot at $60.83 is support.

The major support is $59.17 to $57.25. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June WTI crude oil market on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at $62.29.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $62.29 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move can create enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the short-term Fibonacci level at $63.47. This is the last potential resistance before the $64.38 main top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $62.29 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the pivot at $60.83, followed by a pair of minor bottoms at $60.66 and $60.61.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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