Crude Oil Price Update – Slight Shift in Momentum Indicates Sellers Gaining Control

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are trading near a 13-month high early Tuesday on the back of a cold snap shutting wells in Texas, the biggest crude producing state in the United States, while a wage deal in Norway averted outages in Europe, capping gains.

At 10:29 GMT, April WTI crude oil futures are trading $59.73, down $0.33 or -0.55%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through Monday’s e-trade high at $60.78 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through the nearest swing bottom at $57.31.

The minor range is $57.31 to $60.78. Its retracement zone at $59.05 to $58.64 is the nearest downside target area. Since the main trend is up, buyers could step in on a test of this zone.

The short-term range is $51.33 to $60.78. If the main trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $56.16 to $55.06.

The nearest major support level is $52.30.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early downside momentum suggests the market may pull back into $59.05 to $58.64. A move into this area could attract new buyers. If successful, this could set up the market for another surge into the nearest main top target at $62.64.

We’re watching this latest move very closely because the previous rally lasted seven trading sessions. If the next move doesn’t match or exceed the duration of the rally then we’re going to treat it as a sign of weakness.

Complicating matters on Tuesday is yesterday’s rally. Since it occurred on thinly-traded holiday and only in the electronic market, we’re not putting much weight in yesterday’s high at $60.78.

If you take out yesterday’s price action then the market is up $0.37 from Friday’s close. Furthermore, today’s high at $60.30 becomes the high of the week.

If we take into consideration Monday’s high at $60.78 then today’s lower-high, lower-low makes this high a new minor top, indicating weakness.

Depending on whether you keep yesterday’s high at $60.78 on your chart, the first downside target is $59.05. If you choose to use today’s high at $60.30 then $58.81 will become the first downside target.

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